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The Beginning of Europe's Final Act
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The Beginning of Europe's Final Act The world has been discussing how the financial crisis in Europe is turning into a political crisis. The austerity measures demanded of Greece by Germany and other countries would in our view not only trigger a crisis in Greece -- they would also raise profound questions about the rest of Europe. The questions would involve not only austerity measures, but the political and financial elites that have dominated Europe for the past generation. The French and Greek elections do not yet represent a definitive break with the past, but they are harbingers of an intensifying political crisis focused on the old European order. By old order we mean not only the Europe that was created by the Maastricht Treaty, but the ideology that surrounded it. That ideology had two parts. The economic portion was the belief that free trade and an integrated regulatory regime would create a framework for a prosperity shared equitably between nations and between classes. The political portion of the ideology held that the fundamental issues dividing European states no longer existed, and that the divisive nationalisms of the past had become irrelevant. In the French election, we saw the far-right National Front resurge, ultimately forcing a tighter runoff in the second round. The party's ideology challenged two key European ideas: that borders are meaningless, and that all classes benefit equally from the European project. French President-elect Francois Hollande’s victory held open the question of borders, but certainly accepted the idea that all classes have not benefitted from Europe. His victory also challenged Germany’s leadership of Europe. Hollande and German Chancellor Angela Merkel differ substantially in their approaches to Europe's problems and solutions. Greece’s electoral outcome, which has left the two mainstream parties struggling to form a coalition government, represents a more advanced case of the crisis. The fragmentation of the Greek political system, evidenced in part by the inability of the mainstream parties to rule alone and enter into a coalition, gives some sense of how far Greece has moved politically over recent years. That of course is not surprising, given the Greek reality. The two elections together displayed two things. First, that the far right wing is increasingly influential. By far right wing we mean that faction which is both populist and xenophobic and opposes the loss of sovereignty, the inflow of immigrants, and a system that favors financial, political and intellectual elites over the middle and lower classes. The National Front's share of votes in the first round of the French presidential elections and the inclusion of radical right-wing party Golden Dawn in the Greek parliament are instances of this growing influence. Second, we see that mainstream parties that firmly advocate Europeanist ideology will tend to lose. Outgoing French President Nicolas Sarkozy can be seen as the quintessential Europeanist. Even so, during the campaign he had to refrain from Europeanist talk in order to court the far right. Sarkozy went so far as to threaten a<b> suspension </font></b>of the Schengen Agreement, which allows for open borders between all EU states -- the very essence of European integration. Hollande is not prepared to step out of Europe, but neither is he prepared to live with the deals Germany crafted. Similarly, in Greece the mainstream pro-European parties together barely earned half the votes. The other half was spread over a wide array of parties bound together by a mistrust of the mainstream. The familiar faces of Europe -- Spanish Prime Minister Jose Luis Rodriguez Zapatero, Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi, Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou, and now Sarkozy -- are being replaced by leaders who are still in the European mainstream. But it is becoming increasingly difficult to survive as a Europeanist. More precisely, it is difficult to survive as a Europeanist and adopt Germany’s views on austerity. Hollande has broken with the idea of extreme austerity, but not with the idea of Europe. In opposing Germany on austerity, Hollande embraces Europe as an abstraction. The real Europe is opposed to Germany and the German solution to the economic crisis. This is not a stable position for Hollande. Given the forces in French politics, he will inevitably move further into opposition to the real Europe. Looking forward to other elections, it is our view that these will become less predictable and less favorable to Europeanists. They will also create increasing instability in European countries as new parties and coalitions start to emerge. Europe's final act will be political, not financial or economic, and we are watching its beginning play out. Its themes are sovereignty, class awareness and control of national destiny. It is not an unknown Europe, but it is not a Europe Europeans expected to see again. But then, we are at the very beginning. France and Greece are not even the overture. But that doesn’t mean they don’t point to the climax of the final act. |
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