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COLLISION COURSE: USA v CHINA
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COLLISION COURSE: USA v CHINA China & USA appear to be on a collision course. There are 3 main bones of contention,the first being the enormous trade imbalance in China's favour. Trump doesn't expect China to eradicate it at a stroke,but he does demand that China takes steps to reduce it. The result is a trade war where both countries are<b> slapping </font></b>tariffs on each other's goods. The atmosphere worsens by the day. The second bone of contention is China's unreasonable claim to most of the S.China Sea,in particular to two groups of tiny islands & coral reefs,the Paracels & the Spratleys. Several other countries,most notably Vietnam & the Philippines,also have claims on these islands,better claims than China's. What makes China's claim different is that it has quite arbitrarily transformed two islands in the Spratleys into unsinkable aircraft carriers & is denying other countries their right of free passage through international waters & airspace. US policy is to uphold freedom of navigation,so from time to time it sends ships & aircraft close to the Spratleys & challenges China to do anything about it. So far,China has not been so foolish as to try. The third main bone of contention is that China is upgrading its armed forces by buying high tech equipment,mainly aircraft,from Russia. The US is not happy about this & has put sanctions on China,though like ourselves,China has a right to buy weapons from wherever it chooses. There are other disputes between the two countries,but these three are the main ones. The one most likely to lead to a military clash,which won't necessarily be an all out war,is China's territorial claims in the S.China Sea. The Japanese also tried building an unsinkable aircraft carrier on Truk atoll in WW2. American naval air attacks didn't sink it, but they rendererd it useless. If push comes to shove,the same fate will befall China's fortified islands in the Spratleys. China would be most unwise to have a naval confrontation with the United States,which has by very long odds the most powerful navy in the world. USA should at all costs avoid a land war with China,because that's where China is strongest & even a US victory would be prohibitively expensive. Trump is right to demand a reduction in the trade imbalance between the two countries,so China should make some conciliatory gestures in this direction. He is also justified in demanding free navigation through international waters & airspace,so China should cease its provocations & submit its claims in the S.China Sea to international arbitration. On the other hand,China has a right to buy its weapons from wherever it sees fit,,just as we have,so on this matter Trump should back down. That might encourage China to be more reasonable with regard to other disputes. Negotiation is needed before things get out of hand |
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